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Jeddah - Yasmine El Tohamy - IMF cuts global growth rate forecast for 2021, keeps its 2022 forecast unchanged: Economic wrap
The IMF has slightly revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9 percent from the previously reported 6 percent. The international organization cited supply chain problems and mounting inflationary pressures as obstacles that might hold back the global economy’s recovery.
While the downgrade might seem a slight change, the IMF said in its report that “the outlook for the low-income developing country group has darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics.”
The report also mentioned the disparities in economic outlooks between different countries as low-income countries risk facing lower growth and more poverty as well as significantly weaker vaccination rates.
The global growth forecast for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.9 percent.
The United States had a considerable downgrade for its 2021 growth forecast as it was reduced from 7 percent to 6 percent.
China’s forecast was reduced for both 2021 and 2022 to 8 percent and 5.6 percent respectively while the eurozone forecast was upgraded to 5 percent for 2021, up from the previous projection of 4.6 percent.
The United Arab Emirates Consumer Price Index had an annual increase in August as it turned positive for the first time in 13 months. It stood at 0.55 percent in August, following a decline of 0.02 percent in the previous month.
Prices of entertainment and culture services, as well as educational services, experienced the highest annual inflation.
Egyptian trade balance
Egypt's trade balance deficit declined by 14.6 percent in July to reach $2.88 billion, compared to $3.37 billion in the same month last year, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
Exports leaped by a 31.5 percent annual growth rate. Plastics and ready-made clothing exports saw the highest growth, rising by 58 percent and 23.3 percent respectively.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent in the June-to-August period, the lowest in a year, as the labor market continued to recover.
However, the rate remained 0.5 percentage points higher than it was pre-pandemic.
South Korean interest rate
Korea’s Central Bank kept the country’s interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent in its October meeting. However, it is possible that policy will tighten in November as policymakers might grapple with rising inflation and household debt.
Turkey’s industrial production has grown by an annual rate of 13.8 percent in August, compared to 9.7 percent in July, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Capital goods and intermediate goods grew at the highest rates as they increased by 20.5 percent and 15.4 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s industrial production continued its positive course as it grew by a yearly rate of 5.5 percent in August. However, this is the fifth consecutive month where growth has fallen down as last year's low base effects start to lose importance. The increase in production was mainly driven by an 8.7 percent growth rate in construction and an annual increase of manufacturing by 6.6 percent, official data revealed.
India’s industrial production also saw an increase of 11.9 percent in August, a slightly higher rate than the 11.5 percent recorded in the previous month. Mining and electricity largely induced this output growth according to Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation data.
Malaysian government data showed that the country’s industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in August, continuing its contractionary trend albeit at a smaller rate. In July, industrial production fell by 5.1 percent. While manufacturing output rose by 0.6 percent in August, electricity and mining activity shrank by 4.8 percent and 4.2 percent respectively.
Russia expects inflation to increase in 2021 to 7.4 percent from the previous forecast of 5.8 percent, the economy minister said. This puts more pressure on the central bank for the sixth time this year to increase interest rates. Jumps in food prices are the main drivers of this predicted upswing.
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