While a Democratic president hasn’t won Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976, recent public and private polls suggest the race is competitive. This week during Thirty-five eight In the last survey average, Trump is 1.3 points ahead of the respected non-partisan online newsletter Cooking political report moved the state to “toss” of “slim Republicans” leading to speculation: Could Texas really turn around?
Here are some reasons Texas will be such a fascinating state on Election Night:
The Electoral College: Texas is a huge state with a huge population, which means anyone who wins it gets a whopping 38 votes for the electoral college – the second largest after California with 55 votes.
Put simply, if Biden wins Texas, he will win 14 percent of the total of 270 votes required to become president. As former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke wrote recently Die Washington Post: “Joe Biden can end the election on election night. All it takes is an investment in Texas. ”
Latinos are not monolithic, mind you: most have traditionally leaned to the left, but some are drawn to Trump’s tax cuts, his strong personality, and his anti-socialist rhetoric. The Asian community, while a smaller part of the population, is growing rapidly as well, growing 49 percent since 2010.
The ethnic makeup of Texas is currently 41 percent white, 40 percent Latinos, 13 percent black and about 5 percent Asian. A growing number of Democratic California residents have also moved to Texas in search of more affordable housing.
A FiveThirtyEight analysis of voting patterns in Texas also suggests that more white college-educated voters are moving to Democrats.
Voter turnout will be driven by youth voters, who, according to Tufts University, will be driven by issues like climate change, race and affordable health care. The same research also shows that early voting under 30 has increased more than 600 percent compared to the same time four years ago.
Biden’s Big Oil Flaw: This could hurt the Democrats. In his final presidential debate, Biden suggested deviating from the oil industry in his election.
While he later tried to clear up his comments – he insisted that he just stop giving federal grants to industry – the Trump campaign has taken up the comments to claim that Biden is destroying jobs and soaring energy prices will drift.
Floor game and celebrities galore: The mobilization efforts to turn Texas around were remarkable, building on the army of volunteers that Beto O’Rourke had amassed in 2018 during his insurgent bid to oust Republican Ted Cruz from the U.S. Senate.
O’Rourke narrowly lost, but his formidable campaign was enough to shake the GOP and strengthen his party. Since then, the Texas Democrats and affiliated groups have spent months doing phone banking, knocking on the door (within COVID rules), and using the power of social media to register tens of thousands of new voters.
COVID, COVID, COVID: When the US was hit by coronavirus deaths earlier this year, Texas was one of the worst hit hotspots in America. The state, led by Governor Greg Abbott, an ally of Trump, had set confusing lockdown rules, rushed to reopen the economy as early as May, and initially refused to issue masks.
When The Age visited in August to speak with voters about the election, some counties had even begun ordering refrigerated trucks to store corpses as morgues filled up.
While testing and tracking has improved since then, there is no doubt that the first response to the virus this year will be considered at the ballot box for many Texans.
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Farrah Tomazin is a senior journalist covering the 2020 US presidential election.
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